ABSTRACT
Although some countries are gradually returning to production and life, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to affect the world, further motivating recovery policies. Using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this study evaluates the environmental and economic impacts of COVID-19 on the world, both today and in the longer term. This study explores the post-pandemic impacts conditional on varied fiscal policies (including forgone revenue and additional spending) and their combination with a carbon tax. This study finds that the pandemic shocks in 2020 slowed regional economies worldwide, and a continued pandemic in 2021 will further stymie economic activity. Among the government’s recovery policies, indirect tax reduction has the best positive stimulus to regional economies;however, it is not conducive to low-carbon energy development and will also lead to an increase in CO2 and pollutant emissions. A post-pandemic green recovery plan could prioritize replacing indirect production taxes with taxes on GHG emissions, which would both improve economic turnover metrics and reduce environmental emissions in 2021. In the long run, this tax shift will not only minimize the economic damage to the global economy but also help governments around the world to get back on track in meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement.
ABSTRACT
Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has influenced all aspects of our life since the outbreak in December 2019. The pandemic-related body mass index z-score (zBMI) and obesity prevalence changes in children have not been clearly elucidated, especially in China. Methods: Based on the Health Promotion Program for Children and Adolescents in Suzhou of China, a total of 72,175 children aged 8-12 years with complete data for four consecutive years (2017-2020), were included. zBMI and obesity prevalence were calculated. Multiple mixed linear models were used to compare the yearly changes in zBMI before (2017-2019) and during (2019-2020) the pandemic. Finding: The prevalence of obesity slightly increased from 12·29% to 13·28% from 2017 to 2019, but substantially elevated to 15·29% in 2020. The mean [95% Confidence Interval (CI)] of yearly change in zBMI before and during the pandemic were 0 ·039 (0·037, 0·042) and 0·131 (0·125, 0·138), respectively; it yielded a statistically meaningful elevation of 0·092 (95% CI: 0·087, 0·096). Meanwhile, the acceleration of zBMI change in 2019-2020 compared to pre-pandemic were more obvious in boys than in girls. Interpretation: Compared to 2017-2019, zBMI and prevalence of obesity accelerated among Chinese children during the COVID-19 pandemic. Currently, there is an urgent need to formulate effective public health policies to reduce the risk of childhood obesity resulting from the pandemic. Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant: 81602911), Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD), and Gusu Health Talents Program Training Project in Suzhou, China (GSWS2020100).Declaration of Interest: The authors declare that they have no competing interests.Ethical Approval: This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Suzhou Center for Disease Prevention and Control (No. SZJK2020-XW001).